The IBA Group Limited has undertaken a study into the current commercial jet market and its growth over the coming years, focusing on the opportunities for aircraft investment in the short-to medium-term of three to four years.
The aviation market is a highly cyclical one and the last major downturn was in 2001. The first signs of the next possible downturn, due to the credit crunch, were being seen towards the end of 2007. Historically, downturns have been exacerbated by global events such as disease, terrorism, regional wars, and economic circumstances. It is against this backdrop that the uncertainty in the timing and scale of any growth must be considered. Historical trends provide an insight into how manufacturers, operators, leasing companies, banks and other stakeholders may expect stability or growth to continue in difficult times. IBA considers that whilst past downturns, recoveries and the lessons learnt from them cannot be ignored, the next period in the market development will be unique.
IBA's report covers the following areas: the cyclical nature of the market, international traffic analysis, excess capacity, stored/surplus aircraft, order trends and short- to medium-term deliveries, the effects on aircraft values, market sensitivity, and conclusions.
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