Bombardier Aerospace releases annual aircraft market forecasts
May 12, 2008, Belfast, Northern Ireland - Last week, Bombardier Aerospace released its annual aircraft market forecasts for the business and commercial aircraft markets.
May 10, 2008 By Carey Fredericks
May 12, 2008, Belfast, Northern Ireland – Last week, Bombardier Aerospace released its annual aircraft market forecasts for the business and commercial aircraft markets.
"As we transition to a more international customer base that features less emphasis on the U.S., as well as a structural shift towards larger and more cost-effective aircraft, Bombardier's key product families – business jets and regional aircraft – are expected to continue to generate strong interest across all markets," said Mairead Lavery, Vice-President, Strategy and Business Development, Bombardier Aerospace. "With its comprehensive portfolio of business and commercial aircraft that encompass state-of-the-art technologies and innovative design solutions, and its focus on customer services, Bombardier is well positioned for the future."
Business Aircraft Market Forecast
In the 10-year period from 2008 to 2017, Bombardier's Business Aircraft Market Forecast predicts that business aircraft manufacturers will deliver a total of 1,320 business jets annually in all segments it competes (from light to corporate airliner segments), a substantial increase from the industry average of over 620 business jet deliveries annually during the 1998 to 2007 period.
The total forecasted 13,200 deliveries over the 10-year period represent revenues of approximately $300 billion US(i) for the industry.
Despite strong concerns over a possible downturn in the U.S. and world economies that could create a decrease in overall orders over the next two years, Bombardier believes industry deliveries should keep increasing until 2017. In addition, based on the important surge in orders over the last few years and manufacturers' solid backlogs, the business aircraft industry is expected to maintain its positive trend in deliveries. The sustained vigor of the European jet market has propelled Bombardier to revise its forecast upward from 2007 levels. Bombardier's 10-year industry delivery forecast increased from 9,950 in 2007 to 13,200 deliveries in 2008.
Bombardier's forecast also indicates that primary market drivers continue to be mostly positive. These include manufacturers' current average order backlog that is equivalent to an estimated 29 months of production; a healthy market for pre-owned aircraft; the number of new aircraft programs scheduled to enter service over the next two years; and stable fractional ownership demand. With growing demand for business jets within its international base of customers – representing 67 per cent of orders for 2007 – Bombardier should be well positioned to weather a possible recession in the U.S.
Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast
According to Bombardier's Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast, demand for 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft is expected to reach approximately 12,900 new aircraft in the 20-year period from 2008 to 2027, an increase in demand from last year's forecast. Forecasted demand is valued at approximately US$528 billion.
The trend towards larger aircraft, coupled with sustained higher fuel prices will reinforce operators' requirement for modern aircraft with low operating costs.
The forecast reflects the shift in demand to larger commercial aircraft:
– In the 20- to 59-seat aircraft segment: the forecast expects a demand of approximately 500 aircraft;
– In the 60- to 99-seat aircraft segment: demand is expected to reach approximately 6,100 aircraft;
– In the 100- to 149-seat aircraft segment: the forecast predicts a demand for approximately 6,300 aircraft.
One in every three commercial flights worldwide are on regional aircraft and Bombardier's latest generation of products – its cost-efficient CRJ700/CRJ900/CRJ1000 NextGen regional jets and Q400 turboprop – have become the backbone of many of the world's airlines. In a period of soaring fuel prices and growing environmental concerns, the popular Q400 is proving to be the most economical and environmentally efficient regional aircraft solution on short distance routes. On longer distance routes, the CRJ700, CRJ900 and CRJ1000 NextGen regional jets burn less fuel, produce fewer harmful emissions and provide better economics than comparable regional jet aircraft.
To address the 100- to149-seat segment, Bombardier has spent the last two years refining its CSeries design incorporating the latest technology necessary to produce a game-changing family of aircraft. This new family of aircraft will offer unmatched economics, performance, reduction of environmental footprint and passenger comfort to mainline carriers. In February 2008, the Bombardier Board of Directors granted Bombardier Aerospace the authority to offer formal sales proposals of the optimized CSeries aircraft family to airline customers. A launch decision is expected in 2008 for entry into service in 2013.