Wings Magazine

Stronger than expected recovery for BizAv

May 11, 2011, Montreal - Zenith Jet released its annual 'Ten Year Forecast' for new business aircraft deliveries on Tuesday in advance of the European Business Aviation Conference and Expo (EBACE) in Geneva, Switzerland, opening May 17th.

May 11, 2011  By Carey Fredericks

An ideal reference for analysts, manufacturers, suppliers and other professionals with an interest in business aviation, Zenith Jet's 2011 'Ten Year Forecast' uses a unique methodology that reflects key demand variables and in-depth market analysis. The forecast presents a segment level perspective of the market and analyzes the manufacturing component of the business aviation value chain covering airframe, powerplant and avionics manufacturers. This forecast also provides objective insights into aircraft manufacturers' product line strategies, new aircraft development and other key industry drivers.

Highlights of Zenith Jet's 2011 'Ten Year Forecast':

Total deliveries over forecast period (2011-2020): 11,103 units
Total billings (revenues): $240 billion
Expected compounded annual growth of new aircraft deliveries, 2011-2016: 15%
A notable increase in demand for long range and large business jets will continue from emerging markets
Increased price competition will characterize the long range business jet market as OEMs look to capitalize on demand
Order backlog levels likely to decline in short-term as manufacturers manage the alignment of their order intake and production rates
Demand for light and mid-size business jets remains weak, but production levels will ramp up quickly as market recovers
Opportunities exist for OEMs to develop new clean sheet designs as existing airframe platforms are increasingly unlikely to yield successful derivatives
"Based on a detailed independent analysis, we have estimated the current consolidated industry backlog for in-production, non fractional, aircraft to be worth approximately $20 billion," says George Tsopeis, author of the Zenith Jet 'Ten Year Forecast' and Vice President, Business Operations, Zenith Jet. "We believe that this backlog, which represents 18-24 months of production, is a relatively solid starting point for a recovery in the industry. Additionally, ours is the only business aviation forecast reflecting the cyclical nature of the industry by predicting a market slowdown by 2016," adds Mr. Tsopeis.



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