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Avinode releases 2014 BizAv market forecast

The company projects a 0.7% increase in business jet flights in the U.S. next year, with positive numbers across most of the regions. In Europe, despite several years of negative growth, Avinode predicts that the market will remain flat in 2014 with a marginal 0.1% growth.

Looking more closely at the individual regions in the United States reveals some mixed fortunes. While most of the regions are predicted to fare well over the coming year, the South and West are expected to, once again, lead the pack with 1.0% and 0.9% growth respectively. Meanwhile, the Midwest is projected to remain fairly level with a marginal 0.1% decline in flight activity, while the Northeast is forecast to see an increase of 0.4% during 2014.

Avinode predicts that 2014 will be a mixed bag for the two regions that make up the European continent. Northern Europe, which tends towards business travel, is forecast to experience a 0.9% decline in actual flights during 2014. The more leisure travel oriented southern region, on the other hand, is predicted to see a flight activity increase of 0.7% next year. After several years of decline this should be a welcome break for southern Europe, though it will not bring the region back to the previous high water mark.

Aircraft Category Forecast

On the aircraft side, Avinode projects that some of the current trends will continue with minor variations, while others will see an about-face next year. In Europe, the Light Jet category, which encompasses the Entry Level, Light and Super Light jet sub-categories, will experience a slight decline of 0.5%, brought on primarily by the market share losses in the Light Jet sub-category. Entry Level jets, however, are projected to continue their upswing with a 2.3% increase.

In the United States, the Light Jet category is expected to see a marginal 0.5% increase in activity, driven mainly by growth in the Entry Level jet sub-category. Avinode projects the class will grow by 5.3% in the region over the course of 2014.

Moving up the weight categories, Avinode projects the European decline in Midsize Jet category, which includes the Midsize and Super Midsize jet sub-categories, will continue into 2014, with a loss of 3.6% in flight activity. Meanwhile, in the U.S. the category is expected to grow by 0.7% during 2014.

Avinode sees growth across the board on the heavier side of the chart, with the Heavy Jet category, which accounts for the Heavy and Ultra Long Range jet sub-categories, growing by 3.6% in Europe and 1.2% in the United States. This is driven mainly by growth in the Ultra Long Range class on both sides of the Atlantic.

In the United States, the Ultra Long Range sub-category is forecast to grow by 3.1% in 2014, while in Europe, where the jet class appears to be largely unaffected by general market trends, Ultra Long Range jets are expected to perform 8.6% more flights in 2014.

Avinode’s yearly business aviation forecast is based on historical flight data, economic growth forecasts, aircraft deliveries and forecast demand based on Avinode Marketplace trends.