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Bombardier expected to lower its business jet delivery forecasts, says analyst

March 17, 2009, Montreal – An aerospace analyst expects Bombardier Inc. will once again lower its forecast for business jet deliveries next month in the wake of the economic recession.

Cameron Doerksen of Versant Partners said he expects deliveries will decline by 25 per cent this year, compared to Bombardier’s earlier forecast of a 10-per-cent drop.

He forecasts that total business jet deliveries will fall to 180 plans from 239 last year. Deliveries will decline further next year to 144, representing a 40 per cent drop from the peak deliveries in fiscal 2009.
The Montreal-based airplane and train manufacturer said last month that it plans to eliminate 1,360 jobs and expected to deliver 215 business aircraft this year.

Deliveries of large business jets had previously been thought to be steady despite the economic downturn.

But Gulfstream, which competes against Bombardier in mid-size and large business jets, sent up a “major red flag for Bombardier” when it recently reduced its forecast for large plane deliveries by 22 per cent.

Bombardier could revise its delivery forecast as early as April 2 when it releases its fourth-quarter results.

The company’s shares have taken a beating this year, falling to a low of $2.22 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, down 75 per cent for the 52-week high of $8.97. They traded at $2.86 Tuesday morning, a drop of eight cents or 2.72 per cent from the previous day.